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For proof that the market for initial public offerings continues to open up despite the downdraft in the market, just look at this week. This spring reopening, however, is threatened by the specter of higher interest rates. Why higher interest rates hurt IPOs The major headwind: higher for longer interest rates. technology) are more sensitive to a change in interest rates, because their cash flow projections are further out. Still, most admit higher rates make it more difficult to get investors excited about IPOs.
Persons: Ibotta, Rubrik, Matt Kennedy, IPOs, That's, Kennedy, Santosh Rao Organizations: Centuri Holdings, Southwest Gas Holdings, UL Solutions, Group, Renaissance Capital, Loar Holdings, Manhattan Venture Partners
Two months ago, I wrote a story entitled, "The IPO market is looking very shaky and facing challenges galore." Two months later, the IPO market is still shaky, but there are definite signs of improvement. Second, three $100 million IPOs have filed to go public in the past week, including Viking (the cruise line operator) and Rubrik, a data management platform. Greg Martin at Rainmaker Securities told me that the recent performance of Reddit and Astera Labs, "Were nice shots in the arm for the IPO market. Even with markets at new highs, the specter of interest rates creeping up is still hanging over the IPO market.
Persons: Matt Kennedy, Reddit, Greg Martin, Ibotta, Ingram, Del, Viking, Howe Ng, I'm, Martin, Rainmaker, Santosh Rao Organizations: IPOs, Viking, Renaissance Capital, Astera Labs, Rainmaker Securities, NYSE, UL Solutions, Underwriters Laboratories, Nursing, Centuri Holdings, Labs, Companies, Ingram Micro, Epic, Manhattan Venture Partners Locations: IPOs, Del Monte
A centerpiece of that plan is “MLS Season Pass,” a sleekly designed streaming package that ditches the fragmentation other sports suffer from and lets fans stream globally every game — without blackouts — in the Apple TV app. The package costs $14.99 per month or $99 for the season and slightly less ($12.99 per month or $79 for the year) for existing Apple TV+ subscribers. “Once people tuned into the product, they were watching longer than our linear versions in past years,” Camilo Durana, executive vice president of MLS’ Apple partnership, properties and events, told CNN. On Wednesday, Apple released a new Sports app that shows live MLS scores and pushes people to watch them on “MLS Season Pass” on the Apple TV app. That matches a third-party report from analytics firm Antenna showing that “MLS Season Pass” was getting 6,000 new signups a day before Messi arrived but soared to 110,000 signups a day after he signed.
Persons: ” Sacha Kljestan, ” Kljestan, Kevin Egan, Andrew Wiebe, Kaylyn Kyle, Bradley Wright, Phillips, , ” Camilo Durana, Maddie Meyer, Apple, Lionel Messi, Dre, Durana, Messi, It’s, Santosh Rao, ” Rao Organizations: New, New York CNN — Football, Major League Soccer, Apple, MLS, CNN, NFL, NBC, CBS, FOX, US, TSN, Columbus Crew, Inter Miami, Apple Music, Sports Business, Mobile, Manhattan Venture Partners, doesn’t Locations: New York, Spanish, Canada, Apple’s
It's an old saw: The most important factors for a strong IPO market are an up market and stable interest rates. The problem is that there is not much similarity between Arm and tech unicorns. It's a tough choice: Negotiate onerous new rounds of funding with venture capital firms, or go public at a lower valuation. But if you can't, you either take another lower funding round or go public at a lower valuation." Many companies still looking to go public "This won't open the floodgates for tech unicorns," Kennedy said.
Persons: Rivian, Matt Kennedy, Santosh Rao, Rao, Johnson, Kennedy, Don, Softbank, Birkenstock Organizations: Labor, Renaissance Capital, Manhattan Venture Research, London Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Softbank, Vision Group, PayPal, Shein Locations: China, IPOs
Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) , a natural gas compression company, priced 16 million shares at $16, below the price talk of $19-$22. That was not only below the price talk of $16-$19, but the 15 million shares offered were below the projections of 17 million shares. The IPO market is reopening, but cautiously All three serve different investor bases, each with its own outlook, Santosh Rao at Manhattan Venture Partners told me. The simple fact that all three deals got done is a sign the IPO market is reopening after being largely closed for 18 months. The IPO market is reopening, but with a strong reality check from the customers.
Persons: It's, Santosh Rao, Fidelis, Sellers, IPOs What's Organizations: NYSE, Kodiak Gas Services, Fidelis Insurance, Manhattan Venture Partners, Labor, Foods, ARM Locations: U.S
At the midpoint this would raise $298 million, with a fully diluted market value of $2.1 billion, according to Renaissance Capital. At the midpoint of the proposed range, that would raise $328 million with a market value of $1.5 billion. "The IPO market is definitely opening up," he said. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin has also noted an improved IPO market. The bad news: the stock dropped the day after the IPO to roughly $38 and has remained in that range.
Persons: IPOs, Matt Kennedy, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Lynn Martin, That's, Santosh Rao, Rao Organizations: NYSE, Insurance, Renaissance, Kodiak Gas Services, Renaissance Capital, Goldman, Foods, CNBC, Manhattan Venture Partners Locations: Renaissance Capital, U.S, Canada, Cava, Fogo, Chao
The Great IPO Drought has gone on for 18 months, but some are hopeful that may be ending. It still is a mid-sized deal, but it's getting more attention than usual because there is some hopes the Great IPO Drought may have a shot at ending. "A market rise is a necessary precursor for a rebound in IPOs," Matt Kennedy, senior IPO market strategist for Renaissance Capital, told me. Kennedy would know: Renaissance Capital runs the Renaissance Capital IPO ETF, a basket of recent IPOs. It's a long slog back to a 'normal' IPO market As bad as it has been in 2023, it's better than it was in 2022.
Persons: Matt Kennedy, Santosh Rao, Kennedy, DoorDash, Kenvue, Johnson, It's, it's, Cava, Rao Organizations: NYSE, Renaissance Capital, Manhattan Venture Partners, Capital, ARM, Foods, Saks Locations: Cava, IPOs, Snowflake, Palantir, Chao
The health of the IPO market is dependent on many factors, but principally it boils down to: 1) the strength of the overall stock market (trending up is best), and 2) interest rates (lower is better). The IPO investor wish list: stable markets, Fed done hiking, and lower IPO prices "The most important factor for the IPO market is you need the market to hold up well," Santosh Rao, head of Research at Manhattan Venture Partners, told me. Another essential ingredient for a healthy IPO market: stable interest rates. But the IPO market hasn't seen a "normal" year in a while. High initial IPO prices have proven to be devastating to IPO investors.
The news that Johnson & Johnson had finally begun a roadshow for its long-awaited Kenvue spinoff elicited some satisfaction among IPO watchers. "The investor base is very familiar with the products," Matthew Kennedy, IPO market strategist at Renaissance Capital told me. In the 10 years from 2013 to 2022, about $55 billion was raised on average each year in the IPO market. But in 2022, the IPO market cratered. "Hopefully this will be a more rational IPO market," Rao told me, noting that IPOs have typically underperformed the market because of high initial prices.
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